Just about everyone is familiar with team “Power Ratings”
Allow me to introduce you to my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find value in playing totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation I designed, going back a certain number of years for each club. Taking coaches, and players into consideration. And I give a “weighted percentage” grade for total scores both home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” over a certain number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.
Keep in mind that these are hard numbers. We must take injuries, and weather into consideration ourselves.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth?
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is out as the Steelers host Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch takes his place.
The “Power Rating Total” for this match-up is 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben had emergency surgery. Now at most places the total is 34.5. Not a dramatic drop-off is it?
We now have a 6.5 point difference in the “PRTs'” and the actual total. Do you still take a look at playing the over?
Here’s Week Ones NFL “Power Rating Totals”
Denver/St. Louis 44
N.Y .Jets/Tennessee 40.5
Buffalo/New England 41.5
Baltimore/Tampa Bay 36.5
Cincinnati/Kansas City 49
New Orleans/Cleveland 41
Chicago/Green Bay 39.5
San Francisco/Arizona 40
Indianapolis/N.Y. Giants 45.5
San Diego/Oakland 43
We’re looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting total to consider a play.
Thank you and Good Luck!