The Washington Redskins, who scored a season-high 31 points in a win over the Packers last time out, face one of the league’s highest-scoring teams, the New Orleans Saints, on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. History could be made in the final game of Week 5, as Saints quarterback Drew Brees is just 201 yards shy of passing Peyton Manning for the most career passing yards in NFL history (71,940). New Orleans is posted as a six-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Redskins odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 51.5. New Orleans has lost its last three Monday Night Football home games, so you’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying before making your own Redskins vs. Saints picks.
In a straight-up, pick’em format, the proprietary computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went a blistering 11-4 on its Week 4 picks straight-up, and nailed three of its four top-rated selections, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday night. It’s now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to a remarkable 58-37.
Now, it has simulated Redskins vs. Saints to produce strong against the spread, over-under, and money line picks. We can tell you the model is leaning toward the Over, and it also has a pick against the spread that’s hitting in more than half of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows the Saints’ high-octane offense hasn’t disappointed, with Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara performing at a high level. Brees, who could make NFL history on Monday Night Football, is averaging 311 yards per game and has completed 75 percent of his passes with eight TDs and no INTs. Thomas has 42 catches for 445 yards and three TDs.
Kamara is the new Le’Veon Bell of the NFL, capable of damaging defenses on the ground and as a receiver. He has 611 yards from scrimmage and leads all running backs with 35 receptions. On Monday, New Orleans will get Mark Ingram back from a four-game suspension, further bolstering the run game.
The Saints’ defense ranks fourth in the NFL against the run, allowing only 79.5 yards per game, and has nine sacks, led by DE Cameron Jordan’s four. The O-line has allowed Brees to be taken down just six times.
Just because the Saints have outscored the competition doesn’t mean they’ll cover the spread on Monday Night Football.
While the resurgence of Adrian Peterson has grabbed headlines in the nation’s capital, it’s Washington’s defense that has led the way to a 2-1 start. Washington ranks No. 3 against the pass and No. 7 against the run and its 14.7 ppg allowed is second only to the Jaguars. Brees will certainly be tested by Washington’s pass D, which has three interceptions, six sacks and has allowed a minuscule 77.0 QB rating in three games this season.
Redskins running back Adrian Peterson has been a suitable replacement for the injured Derrius Guice so far. The seven-time Pro Bowler and former NFL MVP has found his legs at age 33, rushing for 236 yards and three touchdowns in three games. QB Alex Smith, acquired from Kansas City in the off-season so Patrick Mahomes could get his career started, has found a home in the nation’s capital. He’s thrown for four TDs and one INT and has a 102.2 QB rating.